A Maximum Entropy presence-only habitat model developed to look at future climate-based habitat changes (2030, 2060, 2090) in the Rio Grande Corridor in NM for Lucy’s warbler, Southwestern willow flycatcher, and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo. Biophysical characteristics like distance to water proved to be more important than climate in habitat suitability predictions, but climate led to 60% declines of suitable habitat by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia.
Friggens MM, Finch DM (2015) Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures. PLoS ONE 10(12): e0144089. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0144089