Poster by Megan M. Friggens and Deborah M. Finch documenting a maximum entropy (maxent) model to predict future habitat along the Rio Grande for SWFL, yellow-billed cuckoo, and Lucy’s warbler. 

Detailed report of the development of a satellite model utilizing flycatcher breeding territory data from six states as well as five years of tamarisk beetle defoliation data from the Lower Virgin River. Change detection showed a large shift in predicted habitat due to drought. A spatially explicit analysis showed a 94% decrease in predicted flycatcher habitat due to beetle defoliation on the Lower Virgin River. However, the model predicts that after beetle defoliation 64% and 45% of habitat will remain in the Lower Colorado and Gila River systems respectively.

Final report on population surveys for SWFL and YBCU in 2018 and 2019, apply existing habitat models to illustrate and predict past, current, and future habitat suitabilities for these two species, and update and standardize classification and mapping of riparian vegetation to reflect recent conditions along the lower 50 miles of the Santa Clara River.

An in-depth System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species modeling effort that looks at two dozen threatened and endangered species and how they may be affected by a changing climate. The authors provide a numerical scale of risk based on possible changes in habitat, physiology, phenology, and interactions across a scale of uncertainties. Results and discussion of the most critical factor for each species are presented.

A Maximum Entropy presence-only habitat model developed to look at future climate-based habitat changes (2030, 2060, 2090) in the Rio Grande Corridor in NM for Lucy’s warbler, Southwestern willow flycatcher, and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo. Biophysical characteristics like distance to water proved to be more important than climate in habitat suitability predictions, but climate led to 60% declines of suitable habitat by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance.

A look at the potential for  southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) adaptations to rising temperatures from an ecological genomics perspective. Compared to other willow flycatcher populations results indicate small, fragmented populations of the southwestern willow flycatcher will have to adapt most to keep pace with climate change.

A guide that walks the user through the use of the AGOL-based habitat viewer ( User is provided with instructions for changing base map layers, toggling through data layers, utilizing tools to compare different datasets, and locating the metadata for the provided layers. Manual uses screen shots of the AGOL platform to aid in seamless navigation.